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Blue barrage: Could it be here to stay?


February 10, 2008

Even with no blue vs. red battles on any primary ballots, local Democrats proudly proclaimed victory over Republicans in the battle of voter turnout Tuesday.

Most point to the presidential contest between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and Illinois native Hillary Rodham Clinton as the reason for an unprecedented number of Democrats at the polls -- nearly 2 million statewide, compared to about 1.1 million in 2004.

An almost certain byproduct of that surge was evident by votes in the primary for the expansive and GOP-dominated 14th Congressional District. Democratic congressional hopeful Bill Foster's campaign highlighted the large number of Democratic presidential ballots cast "in a district once considered deeply red."

"This is unprecedented for a district that historically has voted two-to-one Republican," spokesman Andrew Dupuy said after Foster's victory in the 14th District primary. "The winds of change are blowing in the 14th."

That sentiment also is supported by the national Democratic Congressional Central Committee's intention to back the primary winner as part of its Red to Blue campaign that targets opportunities to capture GOP seats.

Still, numbers from the Feb. 5 primary perhaps offer the greatest sign of the change talked about by Democrats near and far.

Overall in the 14th Congressional District, which stretches from Aurora to the Mississippi River, 75,201 voters cast Democratic ballots, while 77,762 people voted Republican.

In Aurora, Dems outpaced their GOP counterparts as both parties staged competitive 14th Congressional District races. Unofficial results from the Aurora Election Commission reported nearly 12,700 Democratic ballots pulled for president and almost 11,500 for Congress, both registering a 23 percent turnout.

In both instances, Republicans barely topped 11.5 percent turnout -- about 6,400 votes in the presidential race and 6,000 for Congress.

Traditionally Republican Kane County saw nearly as many presidential ballots chosen -- approximately 41,000 -- by both parties. Republicans took nearly 5,000 more congressional ballots than Democrats, but even that appears to be a smaller margin than usual, unofficial figures show.

Kane County Board member Michael Kenyon, R-South Elgin, chuckled uneasily when asked if Kane GOP leaders are concerned about the parity between Democratic and Republican votes in the 14th District primary.

"It's at the top of the list," he said. "We are very concerned."

Really independents?

Kenyon, who has been functioning as Kane GOP Central Committee chairman, said several theories exist as to why there were so many Democratic votes, and one of them starts at the top.

"A lot of people who consider themselves as independents might have taken a Democratic ballot to vote for Hillary or Barack," he said. "Maybe they didn't care about the other offices."

Kane Democratic Committee Chairman Mark Guethle also believes Kane is getting increasingly independent.

"I think many people in Kane County vote on the candidate and the person, rather than the party," he said. "That's my read on this."

By the same token, Guethle thinks the county "is trending more Democratic."”

For the Republicans, Kenyon said, "one way or the other, we have to work it out, starting right away. We have to address that as best as we can."

Growing numbers

Democrats made statements in several Republican strongholds around northern Illinois, from DuPage County to Reagan country.

DuPage Democrats proudly announced this week that for the first time in "living memory" Republicans finished second in the number of ballots pulled. Countywide totals show Dems cast nearly 25,000 more ballots than their political counterparts.

"DuPage County is rapidly changing," DuPage Democratic Chairman Rob Bisceglie said. "Voters have been excited about our Democratic presidential candidates, but there was also strong desire for change at the local level. We anticipate a heated November election."

Democrats in Kendall County turned out in strong numbers by that county's standards. County Clerk Rennetta Mickelson described "incredible turnout" countywide, estimated at 49 percent, with a 23 percent showing among Democrats in retired Rep. Dennis Hastert's home county. The situation left some precincts low on Democratic ballots.

Young voters excited

In DeKalb County, Democratic turnout even surprised some key party officials. Republicans were outpaced at the polls by nearly 3,000 ballots, and more Democrats voted in the congressional primary than Republicans.

That's new territory for DeKalb, a county that has slowly become more Democratic over the years. When the county's party chairman, Eileen Dubin, first joined the 24-member County Board in 2000, she was one of five Democrats compared to 19 Republicans. In 2006, the Democrats gained their first majority ever, she said.

Dubin credits Northern Illinois University with bringing in some of those Democrats, but said that population growth has made significant changes recently to the makeup of the county. Still, she remains surprised at Tuesday's turnout -- an amazing 76 percent countywide.

"It's something I've never seen," she said, "particularly in a primary election. You usually just get the regulars out for a primary, and if you get 30 to 35 percent of the (voter) population, you're lucky. This time, we didn't even have to call people."

Dubin said she has not seen young people excited about an election like this in a long time, and believes it bodes well for her party's chances in November.

"I hope we can keep it coming," she said. "This will be a very exciting election year."

Kenyon, the Kane County Republican leader, said party unity is the key goal for the GOP heading toward November, especially after what he called the "pretty bloody" battle between Chris Lauzen and Jim Oberweis in the 14th District primary.

"It starts with Mr. Lauzen and Mr. Oberweis," Kenyon said. "But it applies to their supporters, too. We have to appeal to them that this is important. I hope they listen to how important it is."