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Hoops preview: Can Big Ten make Final Four?


November 10, 2009

The Big Ten is up, or so we think, with two Final Four contenders among six ranked teams. The Final Four is just down the road, in Indianapolis. But it will be a long and winding road. Because in a sport where one or two players who step up and make things happen can make such a huge difference, you never know where the road will lead.

That’s one big reason why college basketball is such an unblinkingly watchable sport. Here’s our guide to some things to keep an eye on on the eve of another season of NCAA hoops.

THE RICH ARE DIFFERENT: THEY HAVE MORE PLAYERS

One of the reasons Cinderella stories abound in college basketball is that there are so many traditional powers standing in the way of the little darlings.

But for all the talk about upsets, there are eight or 10 perennial powers, depending on how you count, plus a dependable second tier who are never far from the top of the college game. This year is no different and my Final Four picks reflect that.

As good as North Carolina looked on paper last year, Kansas has that kind of look this year. Chicago’s very own, guard Sherron Collins, and 6-11 Cole Aldrich form a top-notch outside-inside anchor that’s backed up by an accomplished rotation and a top recruit, Xavier Henry.

Michigan State has to brush up a bit in the paint, but ought to be better with Delvon Roe and Raymar Morgan healthy and hungry for a second straight Final Four trip. Coming off of a relatively off-year, Texas, which was 23-12, has the horses to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2003. And for all the attention the Tyler Hansbrough-era Tar Heels received, this year’s North Carolina squad might have more top pro prospects.

1. Kansas: After coming up short in his first four Elite Eight trips, Bill Self has all the ingredients to win his second national championship in three years.

2. Michigan State: If a freshman big man learns the steps, Sparty could have another marathon Big Dance.

3. Texas: By adding freshman point guard Avery Bradley, the Longhorns are in position to bounce back after under-achieving last year.

4. North Carolina: With another monster class coming in and the ACC for seasoning, the defending champs are a threat to repeat.

THE BUTLER, IN THE HOMETOWN, WITH THE HOOP

Talk about a Hoosiers remake. Butler, whose famed fieldhouse was used in the movie, has a chance to make a George-Mason-like run this year. Purdue also could save on travel expense. They’re among the teams that have intriguing Final Four designs. In alphabetical order, here are six more teams that head into this season with great expectations.

• Butler: With the Final Four coming to town, the Bulldogs have the stuff to wave the mid-major banner in Indy.

• Duke: If they can step up their guard play, the Blue Devils could go a long way.

• Kentucky: On the run a year ago, the Wildcats could be a hit with new coach John Calipari, who corraled four stud recruits.

• Purdue: Robbie Hummel deserves his accolades, but JaJuan Johnson is a big key to the Boilers’ first Final Four since 1980.

• Villanova: Two McDonald’s All-Americans join a loaded perimeter that’s gunning for back-to-back Final Fours.

• West Virginia: Third-year coach Bob Huggins, who took Cincinnati to the Final Four in his third season, returns hungry with four starters.

YOUNG AND RELENTLESS

How does Kentucky go from missing the NCAA tournament to being a major Final Four candidate? New coach John Calipari has steered two dominant freshmen from Memphis to his new Kentucky home. Here’s a six-pack of freshmen who will hit the college scene with a splash, even if they don’t stay long.

• Avery Bradley, 6-3, G, Texas: This shooter should be the Longhorns’ next superstar, following Kevin Durant and T.J. Ford.

• DeMarcus Cousins, 6-11, C, Kentucky (left): Strong scorer and shot blocker should be one-and-done.

• Derrick Favors, 6-10, C, Georgia Tech: Atlanta native stays close to home, but only for one more year.

• Xavier Henry, 6-6, G, Kansas: A scorer and all-around player who could become the Jayhawks’ first one-and-done.

• John Henson, 6-10, F, North Carolina: Big man with skills to play inside and outside.

• John Wall, 6-4, G, Kentucky: Could do for Wildcats what Derrick Rose did for Memphis at point guard.

THE START OF SOMETHING BIG

The office-pool crowd won’t jump in until March. But early-season nonconference matchups are where teams build their NCAA tournament resumes — and unlike early-season NBA matchups, which tend to be mechanical, college games can be feverish right from the start. Here are a dozen early games where teams will show what they have, and what they need to work on. Some are rivalry games, some are heavyweights and all should be good tests that college fans won’t want to miss.

• Minnesota vs. Butler, Anaheim, Nov. 26: Climbing Bulldogs take their measure vs. the Gophers’ twin towers.

• Northwestern vs. Notre Dame, Chicago, Nov. 27: Revived Cats and rebounding Irish in enticing UIC Pavilion indicator.

• Michigan State at North Carolina, Dec. 1: Smoked twice by the Tar Heels last season, the Spartans find out where they stand this year.

• North Carolina at Kentucky, Dec. 5: By the end of this week, new coach John Calipari will be a thoroughbred, or eating oats.

• Ohio State at Butler, Dec. 12: Thad Matta makes a risky, but interesting return to his alma mater.

• Michigan at Kansas, Dec. 19: Michigan thinks it’s ready to take the next step. This would be it — and more.

• Gonzaga vs. Duke, New York, Dec. 19: The reloading Zags find out how much work they have to do.

• Michigan State at Texas, Dec. 22: Another potential Final Four preview for the ambitious Spartans.

• Illinois vs. Missouri in St. Louis, Dec. 23: Bruce Weber adds his best recruiting class. Mike Anderson tries to keep Missouri showing ’em after an Elite Eight run.

• West Virginia at Purdue, Jan. 1: In between bowl games, a look at two ascending programs.

• Louisville at Kentucky, Jan. 2: Tradition-rich instate rivalry intensified with new chapter in Calipari-Pitino mind games.

• Gonzaga vs. Illinois, Chicago, Jan. 2: Illini meet Zags in their annual United Center game.

THE BLUE GRASS IS GREENER

It was a relatively quiet off-season on the coaching front. After 43 changes last year, only 27 schools brought in new coaches this season — and only seven moves were made in the six BCS conferences.

The biggest was John Calipari’s move from Memphis to Kentucky, where fans are champing at the bit to see him restore the faltering Wildcats to national prominence.

In other moves, former Northwestern coach Kevin O’Neill, who was treated roughly as Lute Olson’s heir apparent at Arizona, picks up the pieces at USC after a recruiting scandal cost former Bulls coach Tim Floyd his job. And Virginia has hired Tony Bennett, the former Wisconsin assistant who revived Washington State, to replace former DePaul coach Dave Leitao.

In addition, former New York Knicks president Isiah Thomas trades in his suit for a whistle and at Florida International, Sean Miller moves from Xavier to Arizona and VCU coach Anthony Grant takes over at Alabama. Mark Fox moves from Nevada to Georgia and Cameron Dollar, who played on UCLA’s 1995 championship team, has been hired at Seattle.