Aurora doctor: 1918-type pandemic less likely now

I am intrigued by Swine Flu. While some people are near panic and others ignore it -- for me the idea that something like this will kill millions is simply a question of time. Naturally, I don't want to see a repeat of 1918, when between 30 and 50 million people worldwide died of influenza.

However, given the skyrocketing world population which is leading us toward shortages of food, water, resources, I can't help but wonder -- if not H1N1, then how long before another strain of flu or some huge natural disaster comes along to wipe out a sizable chunk of the population?

I asked Dr. Phil Jacobson, a retired physician who practiced for 30 years in Aurora, whether H1N1 might become a pandemic. His answer is good news for us here in the U.S: "If we look at the pandemic of 1918-1919, in my opinion the overwhelming majority of deaths which occurred did not occur as a direct result of the virus but from the complications therein.

"There were two causes of these deaths in my opinion," he said. "One was significant electrolyte abnormalities with dehydration. ... Second, was the development of secondary bacterial infections which could not be treated in the absence of antibiotics.

"Today, there are some places in the world which have changed little in the past 100 years and therefore, it is possible to see a repeat of 1918. However, in the developed world, the significant progress in medical science which includes availability of antibiotics and supportive care ... makes the scenario of 1918 much less likely now."

Still, I can't help but wonder whether all the hand sanitizer in the world can save us if we have overpopulated and despoiled this planet to a point where it can simply no longer support us. According to Population Connection (www.populationconnection.org), world population is speeding toward 7 billion right now. It was at 6,901,738,500 when I checked on Monday.

By 2050 it could reach a completely unsustainable 11 billion if we don't act to curb it. Then it would be a race to see whether starvation, war over limited resources, or natural disasters, would begin to kill us first.

I don't think it will matter if we flush our nostrils daily with peroxide, as some forwarded e-mails suggest we should do. While I'll wash my hands as I have always done, I'm not going to let H1N1 or any other threat make me live in fear.

If it's my time to die, it's my time. In the meantime, I'm going to keep looking at the big picture. Global warming, wars, poverty, violence, and ultimately dire shortages of food and clean water, all come back to the fact that we refuse to bring population under control.

To do that, we need to give women -- especially in developing countries -- opportunities and education. We need to make birth control and health care available to all. We need to support energy sources that are sustainable and less polluting.

If we do nothing to change the direction in which we are moving, we can be certain that nature eventually will.

deenasherman@att.net